Missouri Senate Race Could Draw Big Money, National Attention

If Democrats think there's any possibility they could pick up a seat, "they're going to go for it," professor says

Jun 7, 2023 at 2:40 pm

Screengrab from Bell’s announcement video

Wesley Bell announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate this morning.

When St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell announced his candidacy to replace Republican Josh Hawley as one of Missouri’s senators this morning, he entered a race that is likely to draw more national attention — and money — than other Missouri Senate races in recent history.

That's because, according to University of Missouri - St. Louis political science Professor Anita Manion, the 2024 Senate map is looking tough for Democrats, which means that if there is even a scintilla of a chance a person with a D next to their name could unseat Hawley, donors are likely to pour resources into Missouri to try to make it happen.

"Democrats don't have as many opportunities to pick up seats [in 2024], and they have some seats that are in danger. So if they think there's any possibility that they could pick up a Republican seat here in Missouri, they're going to go for it," Manion says. "And if it means that they can undermine Josh Hawley along the way, so much the better."

Manion adds: "This could end up being a big money race with a lot of national attention. I think we're going to be seeing a lot of that Josh Hawley January 6 photo and video."

Bell's campaign announcement this morning came as a surprise, Manion says, even to people "really dialed in" on state politics.

"I suspect the Kunce campaign might have been caught off guard by this," she says, adding that the Marine veteran is possibly feeling "a little deja vu" from the last cycle when beer heiress Trudy Busch Valentine entered the race two days before the candidate filing deadline, and ultimately won the Democratic primary.

Manion predicts that Bell, if he makes it to the general election, will be more formidable than Valentine, who lost in 2022 against Eric Schmitt by 13 percentage points.

🚨 I’m running for U.S. Senate in Missouri 🚨

Josh Hawley has been ignoring the needs of Missourians. It’s time we had a leader who will put us first. Take a moment to watch our video to learn why I'm running, then chip in to help launch our campaign → https://t.co/rU0YmMXCMf pic.twitter.com/iTKTIKv53h
— Wesley Bell (@bell4mo) June 7, 2023

"She was, I think, not great in messaging and communicating, which I think are some of Wesley Bell's strengths," Manion says. "He's also a much more well-known commodity. Nobody knew who Trudy Busch Valentine was. She didn't have experience campaigning. Whereas Bell is on the ground and involved in the community."

The Democrat that takes on Hawley is going to have an uphill battle, Manion says. But Bell is able to tout the fact that he has already won one upset in his career, against the 27-year incumbent Bob McCulloch for the top prosecutor job in St. Louis County.

Manion adds that the resignation of St. Louis City Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner last month may also be a boon to Bell, in that "it highlights a contrast" between her office, which was marked by staff departures and chaos, with the perception that Bell is an effective manager of prosecutors in the county.

Kim Gardner Did Clinical Work Even as Judges Demanded Answers: The Missouri Attorney General says Gardner spent hours at a clinic on the same day as a key contempt of court hearing

First though, Bell will be competing against Lucas Kunce in the primary.

When asked for comment about Bell entering the race, Connor Lounsbury, a senior advisor to Kunce, told the RFT, “It's a huge day in Missouri for our campaign — the AFL-CIO has endorsed Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate. This marks an important moment in the campaign as the state's election-winning labor movement unites behind Kunce, a 13-year Marine veteran who has promised to be a warrior for working people in the U.S. Senate.”

Kunce raised more than $1.1 million in the first quarter of 2023 and racked up numerous endorsements from elected leaders.

Bell's announcement video heavily featured his involvement in the 2014 protests in Ferguson and said that Bell "was on the frontlines of protests, often trying to cool tensions."

However, it was Kunce who got the endorsement of Ferguson Mayor Ella Jones in May.

I'm proud to have Ferguson's mayor, Ella Jones, in our corner. Every community in Missouri deserves to have a Senator they can always rely on to show up and serve.

2024 is our chance to beat Josh Hawley and take this seat back for everyday people — and we won't waste it. pic.twitter.com/tzV3ugffrt
— Lucas Kunce (@LucasKunceMO) May 11, 2023

Hawley, currently promoting his book Manhood: The Masculine Virtues America Needs, (1.72 stars on Goodreads) said of Bell's entrance into the race: "We expect whoever emerges from the messy primary to be the darling of the woke left and raise tens of millions of dollars to try and buy this seat from Missourians.”

One wild card in the race is what else will be on the ballot in November 2024. Manion says it's likely Missourians will be voting on a ballot initiative having to do with abortion, which would increase the turnout of people of color, younger voters and progressives, all to Hawley's challenger's favor.